Page 12 - CSA Celebrity Speakers | CSA Speaker Bulletin January 2016

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MIDDLE EAST

Skating on Thin Ice

Arabia Monitor’s monthly publication provides a timely snapshot of most notable recent developments in the dynamic
MENA region. We feature here some of the latest thinking from Dr Florence Eid, CEO and Chief Economist of Arabia
Monitor and her colleagues.

Florence Eid, Ph.D, Chief UAE, a strong supporter of the - The best-case scenario is
Economist Waleed Shoukry, Tobruk-based House of Represent- that Kobler addresses all of
Head of MENA Credit & FX atives (HoR) and General Khalifa the GNC’s concerns with the
Strategy Charlene Rahall, Faris Haftar. document, while showing a
Al-Sulayman, Yifu Jia, Hadi great deal of diplomatic skill
Makarem, Ph.D, Analysts - Given the clear conflict of to restore confidence in the
interest, the Tripolibased UN and the mediation pro-
• As Iran gears up to boost oil General National Congress cess.
(GNC) has insisted that
exports, Saudi Arabia did not further amendments should - The worst-case scenario is
announce a reversal in its oil be made to the Libyan Po- that the LPA remains unac-
policy at the 4 December OPEC litical Agreement (LPA), put cepted, further damaging the
meeting. forward by Leon, before they work of the dialogue and pre-
would consider it again. cluding the UN from making
• Splits in Tunisia’s ruling party will progress, with no alternative
- However, Kobler has indicated in sight. n
resonate with a public frustrated that he is opposed to any
with a struggling economy and changes in the main text of Click here to read more.
mounting security threats. Leon’s LPA.

• Though Assad’s fate remains a • In November, Kobler met with HoR

bone of contention, the immediate and GNC representatives.
question is: Who in the opposition
is a terrorist and who will be part
of the Syria peace talks?

• Chinese FDI to Algeria has grown

from USD 11.2M in 2004 to USD
665M in 2014, representing 80%
of China’s total FDI in North
Africa.

Libya: Fallout from the Leon
debacle

New Special Envoy to Libya, Martin
Kobler, now has the difficult task
of rebuilding trust in the UN as an
impartial mediator in dialogue talks.

• Kobler’s predecessor, Bernardino

Leon, had close relations with the

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